the Thursday email · 2026 week 3 · our numbers, graded in public
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First edition. Both lists get graded right here next Thursday — hits and misses.
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The Steady 20
The most consistent players — ranked by how little his last ten games swing (std ÷ mean), lowest first, not by a high average, among players averaging in the top 40% of his position. Graded next week: did he land inside his own last-ten range?
QB passing yards
Trevor Lawrence JAX vs NE
last 10: avg 249.7 · range 189–330 · swing 0.15
we say 203.4
Jared Goff DET vs NYJ
last 10: avg 286.2 · range 197–364 · swing 0.19
we say 262.7
RB rushing yards
Kyren Williams LA vs DEN
last 10: avg 69.3 · range 39–92 · swing 0.26
we say 63.7
Bucky Irving TB vs MIN
last 10: avg 61.4 · range 19–89 · swing 0.31
we say 63.6
Chase Brown CIN vs PIT
last 10: avg 73.5 · range 23–107 · swing 0.33
we say 75.2
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs ARI
last 10: avg 5 · range 1–7 · swing 0.33
we say 4
Chase Brown CIN vs PIT
last 10: avg 4 · range 2–7 · swing 0.38
we say 4
WR receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs SEA
last 10: avg 57.1 · range 14–96 · swing 0.36
we say 41.2
Tee Higgins CIN vs PIT
last 10: avg 68.4 · range 31–121 · swing 0.37
we say 53.7
Nico Collins HOU vs IND
last 10: avg 79.9 · range 21–136 · swing 0.40
we say 80.7
DeVonta Smith PHI vs CHI
last 10: avg 58.3 · range 25–117 · swing 0.44
we say 57.5
WR receptions
Christian Watson GB vs ATL
last 10: avg 4 · range 2–6 · swing 0.27
we say 5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs WAS
last 10: avg 7 · range 3–10 · swing 0.30
we say 6
Puka Nacua LA vs DEN
last 10: avg 8 · range 5–12 · swing 0.31
we say 7
TE receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs LV
last 10: avg 61 · range 30–95 · swing 0.37
we say 38.3
Trey McBride ARI vs SF
last 10: avg 77.2 · range 27–134 · swing 0.40
we say 65.1
Sam LaPorta DET vs NYJ
last 10: avg 51 · range 15–97 · swing 0.49
we say 49.2
TE receptions
Sam LaPorta DET vs NYJ
last 10: avg 4 · range 3–6 · swing 0.25
we say 4
Trey McBride ARI vs SF
last 10: avg 8 · range 4–12 · swing 0.28
we say 7
Juwan Johnson NO vs LV
last 10: avg 4 · range 3–8 · swing 0.32
we say 3
The floor board
The number he has cleared in all but one of his last ten games — the second-lowest game, rounded down. One rule for everyone; no threshold is chosen to flatter a streak. Graded next week: did he clear it again?
QB passing yards
Matthew Stafford LA vs DEN
9 of 10 · low 155 · avg 305.2 · we say 238.2
255+ passing yards
Tyler Shough NO vs LV
9 of 10 · low 144 · avg 274.2 · we say 261.2
235+ passing yards
Trevor Lawrence JAX vs NE
9 of 10 · low 189 · avg 249.7 · we say 203.4
205+ passing yards
Jared Goff DET vs NYJ
9 of 10 · low 197 · avg 286.2 · we say 262.7
205+ passing yards
Jacoby Brissett ARI vs SF
9 of 10 · low 95 · avg 262 · we say 222.9
200+ passing yards
RB rushing yards
Bijan Robinson ATL vs GB
9 of 10 · low 33 · avg 95.4 · we say 81.2
70+ rushing yards
Derrick Henry BAL vs DAL
10 of 10 · low 60 · avg 110.3 · we say 101.7
60+ rushing yards
De'Von Achane MIA vs KC
9 of 10 · low 36 · avg 92.1 · we say 66
60+ rushing yards
Chase Brown CIN vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 23 · avg 73.5 · we say 75.2
50+ rushing yards
Bucky Irving TB vs MIN
9 of 10 · low 19 · avg 61.4 · we say 63.6
45+ rushing yards
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 5 · we say 4
4+ receptions
Chase Brown CIN vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NYJ
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 6 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Bijan Robinson ATL vs GB
10 of 10 · low 2 · avg 5 · we say 5
2+ receptions
Kenny Gainwell TB vs MIN
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 3
2+ receptions
WR receiving yards
Nico Collins HOU vs IND
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 79.9 · we say 80.7
55+ receiving yards
Puka Nacua LA vs DEN
9 of 10 · low 47 · avg 117.4 · we say 78.6
55+ receiving yards
Chris Olave NO vs LV
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 92.8 · we say 87.8
45+ receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs SEA
9 of 10 · low 14 · avg 57.1 · we say 41.2
40+ receiving yards
Tee Higgins CIN vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 31 · avg 68.4 · we say 53.7
40+ receiving yards
WR receptions
Puka Nacua LA vs DEN
10 of 10 · low 5 · avg 8 · we say 7
5+ receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs WAS
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 7 · we say 6
4+ receptions
CeeDee Lamb DAL vs BAL
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 5 · we say 6
4+ receptions
Rashee Rice KC vs MIA
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 6 · we say 4
4+ receptions
Christian Watson GB vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 5
3+ receptions
TE receiving yards
Trey McBride ARI vs SF
9 of 10 · low 27 · avg 77.2 · we say 65.1
40+ receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs LV
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 61 · we say 38.3
35+ receiving yards
Sam LaPorta DET vs NYJ
9 of 10 · low 15 · avg 51 · we say 49.2
25+ receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs CAR
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 45.4 · we say 38.5
25+ receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid BUF vs LAC
9 of 10 · low 0 · avg 59.7 · we say 47.4
25+ receiving yards
TE receptions
Trey McBride ARI vs SF
9 of 10 · low 4 · avg 8 · we say 7
5+ receptions
Sam LaPorta DET vs NYJ
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 4 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Juwan Johnson NO vs LV
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 4 · we say 3
3+ receptions
Tyler Warren IND vs HOU
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Dalton Schultz HOU vs IND
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 5 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Every figure is the player's own game log (nflverse, CC-BY 4.0) or our projection. These are our own numbers. Projections are statistical estimates, not advice. This week's board · The record · Method