the Thursday email · 2026 week 4 · our numbers, graded in public
Free.
Last week, graded
Week 3. Steady 20: 16 of 18 stayed inside their own range. Floor board: 29 of 31 cleared their floor again. Misses included below.
Matthew Stafford LA
255+ passing yards · got 390
HIT
Tyler Shough NO
235+ passing yards · got 255
HIT
Trevor Lawrence JAX
205+ passing yards · got 182
MISS
Jared Goff DET
205+ passing yards · got 269
HIT
Jacoby Brissett ARI
200+ passing yards · got 280
HIT
Bijan Robinson ATL
70+ rushing yards · got 194
HIT
Derrick Henry BAL
60+ rushing yards · got 89
HIT
Chase Brown CIN
50+ rushing yards · got 61
HIT
Bucky Irving TB
45+ rushing yards · got 46
HIT
Christian McCaffrey SF
4+ receptions · got 4
HIT
Chase Brown CIN
3+ receptions · got 2
MISS
Jahmyr Gibbs DET
3+ receptions · got 7
HIT
Bijan Robinson ATL
2+ receptions · got 2
HIT
Kenny Gainwell TB
2+ receptions · got 2
HIT
Chris Olave NO
45+ receiving yards · got 107
HIT
Terry McLaurin WAS
40+ receiving yards · got 77
HIT
Tee Higgins CIN
40+ receiving yards · got 90
HIT
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA
4+ receptions · got 10
HIT
CeeDee Lamb DAL
4+ receptions · got 7
HIT
Rashee Rice KC
4+ receptions · got 7
HIT
Christian Watson GB
3+ receptions · got 7
HIT
Trey McBride ARI
40+ receiving yards · got 75
HIT
Juwan Johnson NO
35+ receiving yards · got 53
HIT
Sam LaPorta DET
25+ receiving yards · got 44
HIT
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE
25+ receiving yards · got 51
HIT
Dalton Kincaid BUF
25+ receiving yards · got 38
HIT
Trey McBride ARI
5+ receptions · got 9
HIT
Sam LaPorta DET
3+ receptions · got 3
HIT
Juwan Johnson NO
3+ receptions · got 8
HIT
Tyler Warren IND
3+ receptions · got 9
HIT
Dalton Schultz HOU
3+ receptions · got 3
HIT
Know someone who'd like this? Forward it.
The Steady 20
The most consistent players — ranked by how little his last ten games swing (std ÷ mean), lowest first, not by a high average, among players averaging in the top 40% of his position. Graded next week: did he land inside his own last-ten range?
QB passing yards
Trevor Lawrence JAX vs CIN
last 10: avg 242.3 · range 182–330 · swing 0.17
we say 222.8
Jared Goff DET vs CAR
last 10: avg 287.6 · range 197–364 · swing 0.19
we say 251.2
RB rushing yards
Kyren Williams LA vs PHI
last 10: avg 69.7 · range 39–92 · swing 0.27
we say 67.7
Jonathan Taylor IND vs WAS
last 10: avg 70.4 · range 26–98 · swing 0.30
we say 84.6
Bucky Irving TB vs GB
last 10: avg 59.4 · range 19–89 · swing 0.33
we say 70.2
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs DEN
last 10: avg 4 · range 1–6 · swing 0.32
we say 5
Chase Brown CIN vs JAX
last 10: avg 4 · range 2–7 · swing 0.43
we say 4
WR receiving yards
Tee Higgins CIN vs JAX
last 10: avg 73 · range 31–121 · swing 0.34
we say 65.8
Terry McLaurin WAS vs IND
last 10: avg 57.4 · range 14–96 · swing 0.36
we say 50.3
Nico Collins HOU vs DAL
last 10: avg 79.9 · range 21–136 · swing 0.40
we say 63.4
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs DEN
last 10: avg 49 · range 20–80 · swing 0.41
we say 42.2
WR receptions
Tee Higgins CIN vs JAX
last 10: avg 5 · range 3–7 · swing 0.29
we say 4
Puka Nacua LA vs PHI
last 10: avg 8 · range 5–12 · swing 0.31
we say 7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs LAC
last 10: avg 7 · range 3–10 · swing 0.31
we say 6
TE receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs ATL
last 10: avg 57.1 · range 30–95 · swing 0.36
we say 48.2
Trey McBride ARI vs NYG
last 10: avg 73.2 · range 27–134 · swing 0.38
we say 71.4
Greg Dulcich MIA vs MIN
last 10: avg 35.4 · range 17–58 · swing 0.42
we say 27
TE receptions
Sam LaPorta DET vs CAR
last 10: avg 4 · range 3–6 · swing 0.25
we say 4
Trey McBride ARI vs NYG
last 10: avg 8 · range 4–12 · swing 0.27
we say 8
Juwan Johnson NO vs ATL
last 10: avg 5 · range 3–8 · swing 0.36
we say 4
The floor board
The number he has cleared in all but one of his last ten games — the second-lowest game, rounded down. One rule for everyone; no threshold is chosen to flatter a streak. Graded next week: did he clear it again?
QB passing yards
Matthew Stafford LA vs PHI
9 of 10 · low 155 · avg 316.1 · we say 268.6
255+ passing yards
Tyler Shough NO vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 144 · avg 271.5 · we say 292.5
235+ passing yards
Jared Goff DET vs CAR
9 of 10 · low 197 · avg 287.6 · we say 251.2
205+ passing yards
Joe Burrow CIN vs JAX
9 of 10 · low 76 · avg 243.9 · we say 248
205+ passing yards
Jacoby Brissett ARI vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 95 · avg 244.8 · we say 246.6
200+ passing yards
RB rushing yards
Bijan Robinson ATL vs NO
9 of 10 · low 33 · avg 104.4 · we say 101.2
70+ rushing yards
Derrick Henry BAL vs TEN
10 of 10 · low 60 · avg 108.9 · we say 101
60+ rushing yards
Chase Brown CIN vs JAX
9 of 10 · low 23 · avg 69.7 · we say 59.1
50+ rushing yards
Kenneth Walker III KC vs LV
9 of 10 · low 17 · avg 93.8 · we say 86.2
50+ rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor IND vs WAS
9 of 10 · low 26 · avg 70.4 · we say 84.6
45+ rushing yards
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs DEN
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 5
4+ receptions
Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs CAR
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 6 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Chase Brown CIN vs JAX
10 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 4
2+ receptions
Kenneth Walker III KC vs LV
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 3 · we say 3
2+ receptions
Bijan Robinson ATL vs NO
10 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 4
2+ receptions
WR receiving yards
Nico Collins HOU vs DAL
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 79.9 · we say 63.4
55+ receiving yards
Puka Nacua LA vs PHI
9 of 10 · low 47 · avg 117.4 · we say 105.8
55+ receiving yards
Tee Higgins CIN vs JAX
9 of 10 · low 31 · avg 73 · we say 65.8
50+ receiving yards
Chris Olave NO vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 97.8 · we say 98.8
45+ receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs IND
9 of 10 · low 14 · avg 57.4 · we say 50.3
40+ receiving yards
WR receptions
Puka Nacua LA vs PHI
10 of 10 · low 5 · avg 8 · we say 7
5+ receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs LAC
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 7 · we say 6
4+ receptions
Chris Olave NO vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 7 · we say 8
4+ receptions
CeeDee Lamb DAL vs HOU
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 6 · we say 6
4+ receptions
Rashee Rice KC vs LV
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 6 · we say 5
4+ receptions
TE receiving yards
Trey McBride ARI vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 27 · avg 73.2 · we say 71.4
40+ receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 57.1 · we say 48.2
35+ receiving yards
Sam LaPorta DET vs CAR
9 of 10 · low 15 · avg 52.8 · we say 43.6
30+ receiving yards
Brock Bowers LV vs KC
9 of 10 · low 28 · avg 61.7 · we say 56.2
30+ receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 46.1 · we say 42.3
25+ receiving yards
TE receptions
Trey McBride ARI vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 4 · avg 8 · we say 8
5+ receptions
Brock Bowers LV vs KC
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 6 · we say 6
4+ receptions
Sam LaPorta DET vs CAR
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 4 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Juwan Johnson NO vs ATL
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 5 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Tyler Warren IND vs WAS
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Every figure is the player's own game log (nflverse, CC-BY 4.0) or our projection. These are our own numbers. Projections are statistical estimates, not advice. This week's board · The record · Method