the Thursday email · 2026 week 5 · our numbers, graded in public
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Last week, graded
Week 4. Steady 20: 13 of 18 stayed inside their own range. Floor board: 26 of 31 cleared their floor again. Misses included below.
Matthew Stafford LA
255+ passing yards · got 317
HIT
Tyler Shough NO
235+ passing yards · got 286
HIT
Jared Goff DET
205+ passing yards · got 412
HIT
Joe Burrow CIN
205+ passing yards · got 428
HIT
Jacoby Brissett ARI
200+ passing yards · got 166
MISS
Bijan Robinson ATL
70+ rushing yards · got 145
HIT
Derrick Henry BAL
60+ rushing yards · got 73
HIT
Chase Brown CIN
50+ rushing yards · got 10
MISS
Jonathan Taylor IND
45+ rushing yards · got 95
HIT
Christian McCaffrey SF
4+ receptions · got 3
MISS
Jahmyr Gibbs DET
3+ receptions · got 4
HIT
Chase Brown CIN
2+ receptions · got 11
HIT
Bijan Robinson ATL
2+ receptions · got 1
MISS
Nico Collins HOU
55+ receiving yards · got 118
HIT
Puka Nacua LA
55+ receiving yards · got 125
HIT
Tee Higgins CIN
50+ receiving yards · got 157
HIT
Chris Olave NO
45+ receiving yards · got 116
HIT
Puka Nacua LA
5+ receptions · got 9
HIT
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA
4+ receptions · got 5
HIT
Chris Olave NO
4+ receptions · got 8
HIT
CeeDee Lamb DAL
4+ receptions · got 17
HIT
Trey McBride ARI
40+ receiving yards · got 31
MISS
Juwan Johnson NO
35+ receiving yards · got 59
HIT
Sam LaPorta DET
30+ receiving yards · got 84
HIT
Brock Bowers LV
30+ receiving yards · got 86
HIT
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE
25+ receiving yards · got 27
HIT
Trey McBride ARI
5+ receptions · got 7
HIT
Brock Bowers LV
4+ receptions · got 6
HIT
Sam LaPorta DET
3+ receptions · got 8
HIT
Juwan Johnson NO
3+ receptions · got 6
HIT
Tyler Warren IND
3+ receptions · got 5
HIT
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The Steady 20
The most consistent players — ranked by how little his last ten games swing (std ÷ mean), lowest first, not by a high average, among players averaging in the top 40% of his position. Graded next week: did he land inside his own last-ten range?
QB passing yards
Trevor Lawrence JAX vs PHI
last 10: avg 242.1 · range 182–330 · swing 0.17
we say 209.4
Joe Burrow CIN vs MIA
last 10: avg 279.1 · range 207–428 · swing 0.21
we say 281.6
RB rushing yards
Kyren Williams LA vs BUF
last 10: avg 69.9 · range 39–92 · swing 0.27
we say 67.2
Jonathan Taylor IND vs PIT
last 10: avg 74.1 · range 26–98 · swing 0.29
we say 87.7
Bucky Irving TB vs DAL
last 10: avg 59.2 · range 19–89 · swing 0.33
we say 61.1
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs SEA
last 10: avg 4 · range 1–6 · swing 0.34
we say 5
Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs ARI
last 10: avg 5 · range 2–10 · swing 0.45
we say 5
WR receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs NYG
last 10: avg 57.4 · range 14–96 · swing 0.36
we say 49.3
Nico Collins HOU vs TEN
last 10: avg 78.1 · range 21–121 · swing 0.38
we say 76.3
DeVonta Smith PHI vs JAX
last 10: avg 55.9 · range 25–117 · swing 0.42
we say 52.4
Tee Higgins CIN vs MIA
last 10: avg 76.6 · range 31–157 · swing 0.43
we say 64.7
WR receptions
Stefon Diggs WAS vs NYG
last 10: avg 4 · range 2–6 · swing 0.28
we say 4
Puka Nacua LA vs BUF
last 10: avg 8 · range 5–12 · swing 0.29
we say 7
Chris Olave NO vs MIN
last 10: avg 8 · range 3–10 · swing 0.31
we say 7
TE receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs MIN
last 10: avg 58.4 · range 30–95 · swing 0.34
we say 43.4
Sam LaPorta DET vs ARI
last 10: avg 57.9 · range 15–97 · swing 0.42
we say 58.8
Trey McBride ARI vs DET
last 10: avg 68.4 · range 27–134 · swing 0.45
we say 87.6
TE receptions
Trey McBride ARI vs DET
last 10: avg 8 · range 4–12 · swing 0.28
we say 9
Sam LaPorta DET vs ARI
last 10: avg 5 · range 3–8 · swing 0.31
we say 5
Juwan Johnson NO vs MIN
last 10: avg 5 · range 3–8 · swing 0.36
we say 4
The floor board
The number he has cleared in all but one of his last ten games — the second-lowest game, rounded down. One rule for everyone; no threshold is chosen to flatter a streak. Graded next week: did he clear it again?
QB passing yards
Matthew Stafford LA vs BUF
9 of 10 · low 155 · avg 311 · we say 303.5
255+ passing yards
Tyler Shough NO vs MIN
9 of 10 · low 144 · avg 275.8 · we say 261.4
235+ passing yards
Joe Burrow CIN vs MIA
9 of 10 · low 207 · avg 279.1 · we say 281.6
225+ passing yards
Jared Goff DET vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 197 · avg 300.9 · we say 299.6
205+ passing yards
Josh Allen BUF vs LA
9 of 10 · low 130 · avg 243.1 · we say 211.4
190+ passing yards
RB rushing yards
Bijan Robinson ATL vs BAL
9 of 10 · low 33 · avg 111.9 · we say 94.4
70+ rushing yards
Derrick Henry BAL vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 60 · avg 109.8 · we say 83.5
65+ rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor IND vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 26 · avg 74.1 · we say 87.7
45+ rushing yards
Bucky Irving TB vs DAL
9 of 10 · low 19 · avg 59.2 · we say 61.1
45+ rushing yards
D'Andre Swift CHI vs GB
9 of 10 · low 40 · avg 69.1 · we say 80.3
45+ rushing yards
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs SEA
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 5 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Chase Brown CIN vs MIA
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 5 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Ashton Jeanty LV vs NE
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 4
2+ receptions
Kenny Gainwell TB vs DAL
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 2
2+ receptions
WR receiving yards
Nico Collins HOU vs TEN
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 78.1 · we say 76.3
55+ receiving yards
Puka Nacua LA vs BUF
9 of 10 · low 47 · avg 122.7 · we say 100.1
55+ receiving yards
Tee Higgins CIN vs MIA
9 of 10 · low 31 · avg 76.6 · we say 64.7
50+ receiving yards
Chris Olave NO vs MIN
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 99 · we say 87.8
45+ receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 14 · avg 57.4 · we say 49.3
40+ receiving yards
WR receptions
Puka Nacua LA vs BUF
10 of 10 · low 5 · avg 8 · we say 7
5+ receptions
CeeDee Lamb DAL vs TB
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 7 · we say 6
5+ receptions
Chris Olave NO vs MIN
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 8 · we say 7
4+ receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs SF
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 7 · we say 7
4+ receptions
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 0 · avg 7 · we say 7
4+ receptions
TE receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs MIN
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 58.4 · we say 43.4
35+ receiving yards
Sam LaPorta DET vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 15 · avg 57.9 · we say 58.8
35+ receiving yards
Trey McBride ARI vs DET
9 of 10 · low 27 · avg 68.4 · we say 87.6
30+ receiving yards
Brock Bowers LV vs NE
9 of 10 · low 28 · avg 65.7 · we say 54.2
30+ receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs NYJ
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 46.2 · we say 41.9
25+ receiving yards
TE receptions
Trey McBride ARI vs DET
9 of 10 · low 4 · avg 8 · we say 9
5+ receptions
Brock Bowers LV vs NE
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 6 · we say 5
4+ receptions
Sam LaPorta DET vs ARI
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 5 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Juwan Johnson NO vs MIN
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 5 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Tyler Warren IND vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Every figure is the player's own game log (nflverse, CC-BY 4.0) or our projection. These are our own numbers. Projections are statistical estimates, not advice. This week's board · The record · Method