the Thursday email · 2026 week 6 · our numbers, graded in public
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Last week, graded
Week 5. Steady 20: 9 of 13 stayed inside their own range. Floor board: 22 of 27 cleared their floor again. Misses included below.
Matthew Stafford LA
255+ passing yards · got 383
HIT
Tyler Shough NO
235+ passing yards · got 96
MISS
Josh Allen BUF
190+ passing yards · got 210
HIT
Bijan Robinson ATL
70+ rushing yards · got 86
HIT
Derrick Henry BAL
65+ rushing yards · got 102
HIT
Jonathan Taylor IND
45+ rushing yards · got 45
HIT
Bucky Irving TB
45+ rushing yards · got 165
HIT
D'Andre Swift CHI
45+ rushing yards · got 43
MISS
Christian McCaffrey SF
3+ receptions · got 3
HIT
Ashton Jeanty LV
2+ receptions · got 3
HIT
Kenny Gainwell TB
2+ receptions · got 3
HIT
Nico Collins HOU
55+ receiving yards · got 56
HIT
Puka Nacua LA
55+ receiving yards · got 138
HIT
Chris Olave NO
45+ receiving yards · got 46
HIT
Terry McLaurin WAS
40+ receiving yards · got 62
HIT
Puka Nacua LA
5+ receptions · got 17
HIT
CeeDee Lamb DAL
5+ receptions · got 2
MISS
Chris Olave NO
4+ receptions · got 4
HIT
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA
4+ receptions · got 5
HIT
Juwan Johnson NO
35+ receiving yards · got 16
MISS
Trey McBride ARI
30+ receiving yards · got 66
HIT
Brock Bowers LV
30+ receiving yards · got 110
HIT
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE
25+ receiving yards · got 4
MISS
Trey McBride ARI
5+ receptions · got 9
HIT
Brock Bowers LV
4+ receptions · got 8
HIT
Juwan Johnson NO
3+ receptions · got 4
HIT
Tyler Warren IND
3+ receptions · got 7
HIT
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The Steady 20
The most consistent players — ranked by how little his last ten games swing (std ÷ mean), lowest first, not by a high average, among players averaging in the top 40% of his position. Graded next week: did he land inside his own last-ten range?
QB passing yards
Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs CHI
last 10: avg 226.8 · range 172–313 · swing 0.18
we say 213.3
Trevor Lawrence JAX vs HOU
last 10: avg 250.8 · range 182–331 · swing 0.20
we say 231.6
RB rushing yards
Kyren Williams LA vs ARI
last 10: avg 67.8 · range 39–92 · swing 0.29
we say 77.1
Jonathan Taylor IND vs TEN
last 10: avg 70.1 · range 26–98 · swing 0.33
we say 79.9
Derrick Henry BAL vs CLE
last 10: avg 114 · range 68–216 · swing 0.36
we say 104.3
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs WAS
last 10: avg 5 · range 3–6 · swing 0.24
we say 4
Kenneth Walker III KC vs LAC
last 10: avg 3 · range 1–6 · swing 0.45
we say 3
WR receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs SF
last 10: avg 58.2 · range 14–96 · swing 0.36
we say 48.8
Nico Collins HOU vs JAX
last 10: avg 74.5 · range 21–121 · swing 0.40
we say 82.1
DeVonta Smith PHI vs CAR
last 10: avg 55.9 · range 25–117 · swing 0.42
we say 68.3
Rome Odunze CHI vs ATL
last 10: avg 46.3 · range 8–94 · swing 0.43
we say 60.6
WR receptions
Stefon Diggs WAS vs SF
last 10: avg 4 · range 2–6 · swing 0.28
we say 4
Nico Collins HOU vs JAX
last 10: avg 4 · range 3–7 · swing 0.34
we say 6
DK Metcalf PIT vs TB
last 10: avg 4 · range 2–7 · swing 0.35
we say 4
TE receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs NYG
last 10: avg 56.1 · range 16–95 · swing 0.41
we say 44.5
Trey McBride ARI vs LA
last 10: avg 66.8 · range 27–134 · swing 0.45
we say 57.3
Brock Bowers LV vs BUF
last 10: avg 64 · range 28–116 · swing 0.47
we say 68
TE receptions
Trey McBride ARI vs LA
last 10: avg 8 · range 4–12 · swing 0.28
we say 8
Juwan Johnson NO vs NYG
last 10: avg 5 · range 3–8 · swing 0.37
we say 4
Brock Bowers LV vs BUF
last 10: avg 6 · range 1–10 · swing 0.41
we say 6
The floor board
The number he has cleared in all but one of his last ten games — the second-lowest game, rounded down. One rule for everyone; no threshold is chosen to flatter a streak. Graded next week: did he clear it again?
QB passing yards
Matthew Stafford LA vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 155 · avg 303.6 · we say 330
255+ passing yards
Josh Allen BUF vs LV
9 of 10 · low 130 · avg 239 · we say 221
190+ passing yards
Trevor Lawrence JAX vs HOU
9 of 10 · low 182 · avg 250.8 · we say 231.6
185+ passing yards
Patrick Mahomes KC vs LAC
9 of 10 · low 160 · avg 252.5 · we say 232.1
180+ passing yards
Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs CHI
9 of 10 · low 172 · avg 226.8 · we say 213.3
175+ passing yards
RB rushing yards
Derrick Henry BAL vs CLE
9 of 10 · low 68 · avg 114 · we say 104.3
70+ rushing yards
Bijan Robinson ATL vs CHI
9 of 10 · low 33 · avg 106.3 · we say 93.7
70+ rushing yards
Kenneth Walker III KC vs LAC
9 of 10 · low 51 · avg 109.8 · we say 98.6
60+ rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor IND vs TEN
9 of 10 · low 26 · avg 70.1 · we say 79.9
45+ rushing yards
James Cook BUF vs LV
9 of 10 · low 15 · avg 90.1 · we say 103.2
45+ rushing yards
RB receptions
Christian McCaffrey SF vs WAS
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 5 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Kenneth Walker III KC vs LAC
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 3 · we say 3
2+ receptions
Ashton Jeanty LV vs BUF
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 3 · we say 5
2+ receptions
Kenny Gainwell TB vs PIT
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 3
2+ receptions
Bijan Robinson ATL vs CHI
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 4 · we say 4
2+ receptions
WR receiving yards
Nico Collins HOU vs JAX
9 of 10 · low 21 · avg 74.5 · we say 82.1
55+ receiving yards
Puka Nacua LA vs ARI
9 of 10 · low 47 · avg 119.8 · we say 129.6
55+ receiving yards
Chris Olave NO vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 30 · avg 96.6 · we say 95.9
45+ receiving yards
Terry McLaurin WAS vs SF
9 of 10 · low 14 · avg 58.2 · we say 48.8
40+ receiving yards
Rome Odunze CHI vs ATL
9 of 10 · low 8 · avg 46.3 · we say 60.6
40+ receiving yards
WR receptions
Puka Nacua LA vs ARI
10 of 10 · low 5 · avg 9 · we say 9
5+ receptions
Chris Olave NO vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 7 · we say 7
4+ receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs DEN
9 of 10 · low 3 · avg 7 · we say 6
4+ receptions
Rashee Rice KC vs LAC
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 6 · we say 4
4+ receptions
Stefon Diggs WAS vs SF
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 4
3+ receptions
TE receiving yards
Juwan Johnson NO vs NYG
9 of 10 · low 16 · avg 56.1 · we say 44.5
30+ receiving yards
Trey McBride ARI vs LA
9 of 10 · low 27 · avg 66.8 · we say 57.3
30+ receiving yards
Brock Bowers LV vs BUF
9 of 10 · low 28 · avg 64 · we say 68
30+ receiving yards
Tucker Kraft GB vs DAL
9 of 10 · low 15 · avg 53.2 · we say 38.7
20+ receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs BAL
9 of 10 · low 4 · avg 42.6 · we say 34.5
20+ receiving yards
TE receptions
Trey McBride ARI vs LA
9 of 10 · low 4 · avg 8 · we say 8
5+ receptions
Brock Bowers LV vs BUF
9 of 10 · low 1 · avg 6 · we say 6
4+ receptions
Juwan Johnson NO vs NYG
10 of 10 · low 3 · avg 5 · we say 4
3+ receptions
Tyler Warren IND vs TEN
9 of 10 · low 2 · avg 5 · we say 5
3+ receptions
Tucker Kraft GB vs DAL
10 of 10 · low 2 · avg 4 · we say 3
2+ receptions
Every figure is the player's own game log (nflverse, CC-BY 4.0) or our projection. These are our own numbers. Projections are statistical estimates, not advice. This week's board · The record · Method