Saidmark
the record · 2026 week 1
Sam Darnold
SEA vs NE · QB
the number we published
1.3
locked 2026-09-10T00:01:07Z
actual
0.0
residual -1.3 · inside the printed interval
printed interval 0.0–2.0
31% chance he finishes over passing TDs
model history

Walk-forward reconstructions, not a published record.

wkoppactualmodel
25.12TEN2.01.4
25.13MIN0.01.4
25.14ATL3.01.3
25.15IND0.01.5
25.16LA2.01.3
25.17CAR1.01.4
25.18SF0.01.4
25.20SF1.01.3
25.21LA3.01.2
25.22NE1.01.2

The number we published is the lock. It is never revised. Model history, when shown, is a walk-forward reconstruction — not a published record.

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